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Recommended
Poker Strategy - Changing Pace Note: This is only for shorthanded games (6 or fewer people) and to be used mainly against other good players. One thing that most people do wrong, including myself at times, is play consistently. You may play your AQ differently sometimes preflop or when you hit an A or Q. You may bet a different amount (in No-Limit) or choose to jam the pot at a different time (in Limit). However, most decent players will be able to identify you as a certain type of player: tight-aggressive, very tight-aggressive, etc. A way to help your earnings is to simply switch up your play sometimes. This way, when they're expecting that you're going to bluff, you bluff rarely so they'll call you more. Likewise, if your bets are usually for value, you start to bluff at the pot a lot. People generally won't catch on if you do this discreetly, and it can add more mystery to your play. This strategy is obviously more effective at No-Limit because it is much easier to bluff at NL. However, it can be used at Limit as well. Generally, the game must be 5 or fewer people (preferably 4 people total.) With stakes large enough, you can effectively bluff at the flop or turn if you played it tight at first, and you will receive more callers for big bets if you bluffed earlier. For those
of you who are mathematically inclined, I'll use some game theory to
prove my assertions. Suppose you are playing a soccer match and you
have a penalty kick. You predict that if you kick left, you will have
an 80% chance of scoring if the goalie does not expect left, and you
have a 60% of scoring if you kick to the right and the goalie does not
expect right. However, if the goalie blocks left and you kick left,
you only have a 45% chance of scoring, and if the goalie blocks to the
right, you will only score 35% of the time. Here's a matrix to quickly
summarize: As you can see, even though shooting left may be what you are best at, it is in your interest to shoot right from time to time because if the goalie always knows you will shoot left, you will score less than if you shot to the right sometimes. Now, instead
of percent chance of scoring, think of the numbers as hourly profit.
Left means playing your standard tight-aggressive game and the right
means playing a more loose game. Bad players may not 'block' at all or will always block the wrong way, so you can keep on playing your standard tight-aggressive game and earn $80 an hour. However, against good players, they'll quickly realize what you are doing and defend against it. Your profit drops down to $45 an hour. Now, suppose you play tight-aggressive 70% of the time and looser 30% of the time. If they continue to just play against you as if you were a tight-aggressive all the time, you will earn $49.5 an hour (.7 * 45 + .3 * 60). Now, if
your opponents caught on to what you were doing and played you as a
tight-aggressive 80% of the time and a looser player 20% of the time,
your profit would actually increase as long as they don't know exactly
when you were playing which way. Your profit would be $52.9 So, in order for them to defend against your changing pace, they need to know when you are changing pace. Obviously, if they treated you as a tight-aggressive 70% of the time and they were correct the whole time, your profit would drop. However, as shown before, predicting a change of pace when there is none will actually help the person who is changing pace, so people generally will treat you as the same even when you switch your style! Thus, I recommend you change your pace some, but randomize it so they can't catch on and correctly predict when you vary your style. |
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| I was coddling a cappuccino at a casino's posh high roller club a few weeks ago with some blackjack-playing cronies, Basil and Courtney. Basil is a club member. Courtney and I were his guests. Basil follows basic strategy to the letter. He bets $100 most of the time, with rare raises to $125, $150, and $200 "on a whim." This gives the casino 0.37 percent edge. Basil's average wager is $105, so the house has a theoretical win of $0.39 per round. Courtney counts cards. She likes to start at $50 and progress -- when she can get away with it -- to $100 at +2, $200 at +3, $300 at +4, and $600 at or above +5. This spread will give Courtney 1.8 percent edge. Considering hands at each count level, her bets would average $107.58 and she'd expect to earn $1.94 per round. Both have good day jobs and gamble for entertainment, not for a living. However, they play frequently and pretty much epitomize what I consider serious bettors. Talk turned, as usual with this duo, to the question of whether card counting is worthwhile. Courtney's affirmative argument was twofold. First, without counting, blackjack is a negative expectation game and solid citizens are bound to lose in the long run. Second, even during the short span of a single casino sojourn, players are throwing away money if they don't grab all the advantage they can. Basil's contrary contention was quadripartite. One, he didn't play enough in a year to sweat "the long run." Two, during a day or so at the casino, the disparity isn't significant. Three, bankroll swings are more drastic with counting for the same average bet, and he was uncomfortable dropping too precipitously if luck ran sour. And, four, casinos not only welcome him but offer perks he considers part of the scene -- such as club memberships, hotel rooms, meals (some passing for gourmet), and invitations to special events -- while Courtney gets hassles. When I returned home, I put numbers on both sides of the debate. I calculated profit and loss prospects during a year -- assuming 10,000 rounds, and a weekend visit -- benchmarking 500 rounds. Here are the annualized projections. Basil has about one chance in four of winding up losing over $12,000 and the same for earning more than $4,250 with basic strategy. Moreover, he has about 16 percent probability of going as far as $20,000 in the hole before completing the 10,000 rounds. Courtney has three chances in four of finishing with a profit over $5,500 and one in four of surpassing $33,000 by card counting. Her risk of falling below $20,000 during the year is roughly 10 percent. Purely monetarily, for a year at these levels of play, counting is far superior to basic strategy. Even with the wider bankroll swings counters can anticipate, folks who fret over fleeting yet painful setbacks will find this approach less perilous. Perks for basic strategy players but not card counters moderate the effects somewhat. Basil can figure his action will bring at least $2,000 in comps and a plethora of priceless recognition and kow-towing if not respect, which he knows is pandering but relishes anyway. Single visit results are less pronounced. Basil has a 25 percent shot at ending worse than $2,000 down and the same for exceeding $1,600 up. The chance he'll drop below $5,000 before completing 500 rounds is only 7 percent. Courtney's swings will be wilder, giving her the same 25 percent chances of being below a $2,000 loss or above a $4,000 gain after this much play. However, she's running a 21 percent risk of $5,000 or more red ink during the trip. And, of course, Basil will get fancy quarters and food on the house; Courtney will pay her own way at the Linoleum Lodge a few leagues out of town, and fund her own all-you-can-eat buffet. So, is card counting worth your while? Examine the pros and cons in light of your personal hopes and fears, not forgetting the time you expect to be at the tables. Then decide for yourself. Just keep in mind what the bard, Sumner A Ingmark, had to say: The wisest sages most astutely, Do not give answers absolutely. |
